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🔵REVISIONE GUIDA SUI TASSI D'INTERESSE

🔵REVISIONE GUIDA SUI TASSI D'INTERESSE

Giorno: 04 aprile 2024 | Ora: 08:16 La Banca di Corea sta valutando di modificare il modo in cui fornisce indicazioni sul futuro percorso dei tassi di interesse al fine di aumentare la trasparenza. La proposta prevede di estendere il periodo di previsione e di fornire stime visive, insieme a previsioni più dettagliate sulla crescita e sull'inflazione. Tuttavia, c'è opposizione da parte di alcuni membri del consiglio di amministrazione della banca centrale, che temono che ciò possa minare la fiducia del pubblico se le condizioni cambiano improvvisamente. La Banca di Corea sta cercando di migliorare la trasparenza e la comprensione pubblica delle sue azioni attraverso una riforma dei mercati finanziari. La proposta di nuove indicazioni sul percorso della politica monetaria sarebbe la prima del genere da parte della Banca di Corea.

BANK OF KOREA CONSIDERS OVERHAULING GUIDANCE ON INTEREST RATES

  • The Bank of Korea is considering extending the timeframe and providing visual estimates in its guidance on the future path of interest rates.
  • However, there is opposition from at least one member of the central bank's governing board and a senior official.

GOVERNOR RHEE CHANG-YONG DEVELOPING PLANS FOR REGULAR FORWARD GUIDANCE

  • Since 2022, Governor Rhee Chang-yong has been developing plans to regularly provide conditional forward guidance on policy interest rates for six months or longer.
  • These projections would be accompanied by more detailed growth and inflation forecasts.

PROPOSED OVERHAUL WOULD IMPROVE TRANSPARENCY AND PUBLIC UNDERSTANDING

  • The proposed changes to the bank's communication tool are part of a wider push to improve transparency and boost public understanding of its actions.
  • Any visual estimates on the future course of monetary policy would be the first by the Bank of Korea, which currently issues mostly verbal forward guidance.

UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE NEW FORMAT OF FORWARD GUIDANCE

  • The Bank of Korea has not provided any comment on whether a new format of forward guidance is being discussed.
  • Any changes would need to be approved by the bank's seven-member board.

ANALYSTS EXPECT INTEREST RATE CUTS BY THE END OF THE YEAR

  • Analysts expect the Bank of Korea to cut its key interest rate by 50 basis points by the end of this year.
  • This is due to inflation slowing to the mid-2% range.

CURRENT FORWARD GUIDANCE APPROACH AND RECENT CHANGES

  • The Bank of Korea's current approach to forward guidance is on a meeting-by-meeting basis, with no charts or quantitative estimates provided.
  • Recently, Governor Rhee has provided three-months-ahead indications on where interest rates could go during post-meeting press briefings.
  • Starting from the second half of this year, the bank's research team will publish growth and inflation forecasts on a quarterly basis, a plan announced by Governor Rhee in January.

CONCERNS ABOUT MORE EXPLICIT FORWARD GUIDANCE

  • There are concerns about the experiences of other central banks that have been criticized for failing to foresee recent price spikes in their projections.
  • These miscalculations can lead to sharp U-turns on policy signals and financial market volatility.
Bank of Korea

Source: Yahoo, Bloomberg , Reuters, Trading Economics,